Earlier this year, Republicans were widely expected to overturn Democrats’ razor-thin majorities in both the House and Senate. The party opposing the White House almost always gains seats in midterm years. And with record inflation and President Biden’s approval ratings hovering below 40 percent, this pattern seemed highly likely to continue with a Republican wave. As recently as April, Republicans led the generic ballot by 4 to 5 percentage points.

The last few months appear to have moved the needle in Democrats’ favor. Biden’s approval has ticked up as gas prices have fallen and he has successfully moved forward two signature items in his agenda, the “Inflation Reduction Act” that tackles climate change and health care costs, as well as student loan relief for borrowers with incomes under $150,000. And the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade is extremely unpopular and a motivator for left-leaning voters who may otherwise have sat out this election.

These factors appear for now to be limiting the electoral advantage the out-party typically enjoys in midterm years. Recent public polling has shown Republicans and Democrats trading leads in the generic ballot, widely considered the best indicator of national party strength. The generic ballot is essentially tied on average, inconsistent with recent “wave” elections where the party out of power made large gains in Congress. At this point in the Democratic wave year of 2018, Democrats led the generic ballot by over eight percentage points. And at this point in the Republican wave year of 2010, the GOP led by about six points. Both leads were roughly comparable to their final electoral margins.

In the Senate, where more extreme and less experienced candidates have won the Republican nomination in key contests, Democrats’ chances of holding on may be even better. And Democratic governors in swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania are maintaining higher approval ratings than Biden.

However, even in some of the more optimistic data we still see signs that the electorate is dissatisfied with Democratic leadership. A recent Detroit Free Press poll, for example, found Democrat Gretchen Whitmer with a double-digit lead over her Republican opponent – but Whitmer’s percentage of the vote only at 50%, her approval rating below 50%, and views of the state’s economy negative by a two to one margin. And this is from a pollster who has overestimated the Democratic margin substantially over the last three cycles.

To win in a world where people don’t much like them and think the country is headed in the wrong direction, Democrats need a powerful and disciplined message. One piece of this is to point to ways they are fighting to improve economic conditions for ordinary people. But as long as the economic reality is still challenging, an equally urgent need is to show voters who are unenthusiastic about Democratic leadership that the alternative is worse. Democrats need to be on the offensive, everywhere, about Republicans’ attacks on reproductive freedom and their economic priorities that are wrong for the country.

Of course this analysis captures a moment in time, and two months is plenty of time for new issues to emerge or the reality on the ground to shift. If inflation and gas prices start to rise again, even the perfect campaigns may not be enough to turn the tide.

In Biden’s first 100+ days, the country is still sharply divided but slants toward the Democrats. Biden is maximizing that narrow advantage by 1) focusing his energy on the public’s priorities and 2) avoiding the trap of one-sided bipartisanship that gives Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans all the negotiating power.

Biden has so far sustained approval from a narrow majority of the country – far better than Trump but lower than earlier presidents. Since inauguration day, somewhere between 52% and 55% in most surveys say they approve of the job President Biden is doing. In contrast, Trump never saw sustained majority approval. And at 100 days into his presidency, Trump had already fallen several points from his limited “honeymoon” to about 42% approval. Many earlier presidents, however, started with higher approval ratings. Obama, for example, spent his first 100 days with approval ratings in the 60s, and George W. Bush in the high 50s. (For the interested, Gallup tracks its own presidential approval polling back to Eisenhower here).

The partisan polarization of the current moment probably creates a ceiling for Biden’s approval. The last decades have found Democrats and Republicans increasingly disagreeing on partisan lines about matters of public policy and viewing members of the other party more and more negatively. The upshot, of course, is fewer voters willing to give a new president of the other party a chance to earn their approval.

Given these circumstances – and the narrow control Democrats have over the Senate – Biden is acting in ways to maximize his success. I’m not the first to make this point, but Biden’s approach to partisan conflict and a narrow Democratic majority is so far much more successful than Obama’s. Instead of trying to find bipartisan support in the Senate, Biden has focused on acting where he can do so with executive authority or with only Democratic votes, and on communicating with the American people about priorities that enjoy strong (and bipartisan) public support. This has played out to his benefit:

• Biden’s management of the pandemic and vaccine access has earned him strong marks in an area of high importance to the public. As an example of this strength, while the most recent NBC News poll has his overall approval at 53%, his handling of COVID is at 69%.
• Biden’s economic agenda is also highly popular. The American Rescue Plan – which passed with zero Republican votes in the Senate – found high levels of public support. A large majority supports the infrastructure investments in the American Jobs Plan. And the administration’s focus on these popular priorities is paying off in how the public rates the President’s performance on the economy (52% approve in the recent NBC poll).

The next months and years will get harder. The administration will need to address issues that don’t have a clear bipartisan consensus, including issues of racial equity that Trump and other Republicans have been able to use to divide the public to their advantage.

But he’s on the right path. The Biden team’s approach of emphasizing results over process conveys strength and authority and avoids handing the reins to Republican officeholders who will define success by Biden’s failure. And the public sees it. An Ipsos poll out today shows Biden gets much more credit for the right level of compromise than Republicans in Congress do:

This is a signal that the Biden team has learned the lessons of the Obama presidency and a promising indication for the rest of his term.

We thought it would be useful to summarize where the polling stands immediately pre-election and what to watch for in election returns.

1. Early vs. election day voting: The most important context for election night tonight is the enormous split in *how* Democrats and Republicans have voted, with the early and mail-in vote heavily Democratic and the election day vote almost certain to be heavily Republican. Based on what we're seeing in polling, this gap may be even more stark than estimates based on modeled partisanship. It’s also important to know that some states (FL, North Carolina) report early vote first -- so their totals will get more Republican as the night goes on. Other states (MI, PA, WI) will mostly report election day votes before absentee votes are fully counted, which may take a couple of days, so their totals will get more Democratic as time goes on.

2. The presidential race: Anyone paying attention knows the polls have Biden well ahead in the national popular vote. His lead is bigger than the lead Clinton had in 2016. And there are several other differences from 2016, including pollsters making better adjustments for educational attainment, fewer undecided voters (who broke late for Trump in 2016), and the fact that people have a favorable view of Biden rather than disliking both candidates. Biden will win the popular vote, likely by a large margin.

Of course the electoral college means the popular vote winner might not win. Biden's most likely path to the presidency runs through the states Clinton won, plus Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Polling has him up in all of those states to the extent that a 2016-size error would still leave him ahead. But those are the states where the Democratic vote is likely to be counted later so we might not know the final outcome right away. If Biden wins any of the southern states (FL, NC, GA), however, he makes it more or less impossible for Trump to win overall, and we might have a pretty good idea tonight of the outcome. The Upshot has a good tracker for when results come in and how to interpret them.

3. The U.S. Senate: Democrats have a real chance to take control. If they do, it will most likely go through Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, and Maine – or maybe Iowa, Montana, Georgia, or South Carolina. Republicans are likely to pick up Doug Jones' seat in Alabama, and would like to (but probably won't) win Peters' seat in Michigan.

4. Here in Michigan: I know this isn't all of you, but here are the things I'll be tracking in-state:

• MI-3 and MI-6: Michigan's 3rd Congressional District, covering Grand Rapids, is an open seat that has become one of the most competitive races in the country. The 6th, in Southwest MI, is a bit more of a long-shot for Democrats. Republicans have targeted first-term Democrats Haley Stevens (MI-11) and Elissa Slotkin (MI-8), hoping to flip these seats.
• MI State House: If Democrats gain four seats, they will control the chamber. They're looking to pick up three districts in Oakland County (38, 39, 45), and one in Kalamazoo County (61) with 104 (Traverse City), 79 (Berrien County), and two seats in Kent County (72, 73) as somewhat longer shots. Republicans are hoping to hold Democrats off by flipping the 96th (Bay County), 19th (Livonia), or on a good night for them the 23rd (Downriver) or 48th (Genesee County). Again, expect early returns to favor Republicans, and wait for all the AV results to know where we are.
• MI Supreme Court: Elizabeth Welch, Mary Kelly, and Brock Swartzle are fighting for an open seat on the state supreme court. Welch was endorsed by the Democratic party while the other two are Republican endorsed, so we should expect election day returns to favor the Republican candidates, and AV returns to favor Welch. If Welch wins, it gives the Democrats a majority on the Supreme Court.
• MI Proposal 1: Will commit oil and gas revenues to conservation and recreation in perpetuity by lifting the cap on the Michigan Natural Resources Trust Fund.

The first national data has started to come out on how people are reacting to the murder of George Floyd, the subsequent protests, and Trump's reaction. There is some encouraging information in here, though obviously this is another quickly-evolving situation and people's opinions may change as circumstances change.

1. The public pretty clearly thinks the police officer was in the wrong in Floyd's death. Yahoo News finds 62% “strongly approve” of the firing of Chauvin and the three other Minneapolis police officers involved in Floyd’s death, and 77% say Chauvin was "obviously guilty and, if anything, the authorities were too slow to arrest him." Morning Consult finds 77% “strongly support” the firing of the officers involved in Floyd’s death, and 80% percent strongly support Chauvin’s arrest.

2. Views are a little more mixed on the protests, and it depends what questions are asked. The Morning Consult survey finds 54% of U.S. adults support the ongoing protests in response to the death of George Floyd and other black Americans. At the same time, Yahoo finds 51% say the protests in Minneapolis are "mostly violent riots" and only 10% say they are "mostly peaceful protests," and 25% say they are both about equally.

3. The initial reaction to President Trump's response is negative. CBS News finds 32% approve Trump's handling of the protests and events in Minneapolis and 49% disapprove.

4. Voters offer an acknowledgment of the racial injustice at work. Yahoo News finds 61% of Americans say race was a "major factor" in the death of George Floyd. In the CBS survey, 57% say "police in most communities treat white people better than black people." In the Morning Consult survey, 58% agree said they agreed that racial discrimination against black people is one of the biggest problems facing America today.

5. Almost all of this shows large differences by party and race, with Black Americans (and to a lesser extent White Democrats) feeling even more strongly in favor of the protests and Republicans aligned more on the side of the police.

6. This may be one more turning-point in a long-term shift on race in the U.S. It can be helpful sometimes to remember how far we have come, as illustrated in the chart below showing the long-term increase for support for interracial marriage. We certainly still have a long way to go, but just because we're not there yet doesn't mean we won't get there.

Data regarding the emergence of the novel coronavirus in the U.S. show the public is very attentive to the emerging threat and concerns are high. At the same time, views of the seriousness of the threat vary sharply by party, as do views of how the President is handling it. Of course, the Unites States is still in the early stages of dealing with this outbreak and we anticipate that circumstances on the ground, and public opinion, may change rapidly over the next weeks.

1. Americans are paying a great deal of attention to coronavirus. This topic is swamping other issues. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll¹ conducted from March 11-13 finds that 99% of Americans have seen, read or heard news coverage about the spread of the coronavirus – and 89% have heard a lot, up from 60% in their survey conducted 10 days earlier. Similarly, Navigator² finds that as of last week, 98% had heard about an outbreak of coronavirus, and 83% had heard a lot – far more than any other issue in the news such as the Democratic primary (49% heard a lot) or the stock market (43% a lot).

2. Many are concerned about the impact of the outbreak nationally, but there are large differences by party. Navigator finds 72% very or some concerned about a coronavirus outbreak becoming more widespread in the U.S. – but while 80% of Democrats are concerned, independents (58%) and Republicans (67%) are less so. Democrats (43%) are nearly twice as likely to call the outbreak a “major crisis” as Republicans (23%).

3. Voters are less concerned about getting the virus themselves – and there are partisan differences here too. NBC/WSJ finds just over half very (15%) or somewhat worried (38%) that they or their families will catch the virus – but that’s 68% of Democrats very/somewhat worried and just 40% among Republicans.

4. Large numbers of Americans are changing their behavior – and again, the pattern is partisan. NBC/WSJ shows:

• 47% have or plan to stop attending large public gatherings – but that includes 61% of Democrats and only 30% of Republicans.
• 36% have or plan to cancel travel – but that’s 47% of Democrats and 23% of Republicans
• 26% have or plan to stop eating at restaurants – 36% of Democrats and 12% of Republicans

5. Views of the economy are down only slightly despite the stock market downturn, but Americans do express concern about potential economic impacts in the future. NBC/WSJ finds 47% of voters describe the economy as excellent or good – a drop of 6 points since December. Navigator finds 43% expect the economy to be better a year from now and 27% expect it to be worse, essentially unchanged from their expectations in January 2020 (42% better, 24% worse). However, at the same time, 72% say they are very or somewhat worried about a coronavirus outbreak causing a major economic downturn.

6. Approval of Trump’s handling of the virus matches his overall approval. NBC/WSJ finds 45% approve and 51% disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the coronavirus – compared to 46% job approval/51% disapproval overall. Others find similar results, including ABC/Ipsos³ (43% approve, 54% disapprove of his response to coronavirus) and Quinnipiac⁴ (43% approve, 49% disapprove handling of coronavirus)

7. When presented with criticisms of the Trump administration response, however, voters say the criticisms are fair and concerning. Navigator tested five criticisms of the Trump administration’s handling of the outbreak. Each finds a majority describing them as fair criticisms and each finds a majority saying they raise serious concerns. The two most broadly persuasive criticisms are:

• Trump made it harder to fight coronavirus by gutting American preparedness to respond to outbreaks like this. The administration eliminated the U.S. Pandemic Response team, tried to cut the Center for Disease Control budget just last month, and gutted a health security initiative, firing staff and shutting down 39 of 49 pandemic centers created to combat the spread of dangerous viruses (64% serious concerns, 60% among independents); and
• Trump's approach to health care has made Americans more vulnerable if they get sick with coronavirus. Trump has tried to cut health care and Medicare for three years - raising health care costs and limiting access. He gave insurance companies power to sell junk plans that don't cover the costs of treatment from coronavirus. Now Americans are getting hit with massive bills for testing and quarantines (63% serious concerns, 60% among independents).